25 ãéëì óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, ÷åô÷ø òïóôá: æáúá íáëóéíõíá ïâúïò óïóôïñîéñ óïìîåþîïê áëôé÷îïóôé, çåïüææåëôé÷îùè ñ÷ìåîéê é éè ÷ïúäåêóô÷éê îá ïëïìïúåíîïå ëïóíéþåóëïå ðòïóôòáîóô÷ï îá ðåòéïä 23.12.2024 - 29.12.2024 Ç. é ðòïçîïú îá 30.12.2024 - 06.01.2025 Ç. ëüòòéîçôïîï÷óëéê ïâïòïô 2292(10,49.12.2024) úåíìñ ÷îå ðìïóëïóôé óïìîåþîïçï üë÷áôïòá BÏ: (-1.9 - -2.8) ÇÒÁÄ ÚÏÎÁ ÇÅÏÜÆÆÅËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ S32 - N28 ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø óïìîãá âùìá îá ÷ùóïëïí é ïþåîø ÷ùóïëïí õòï÷îñè. òáóþ³ôîïå óòåäîåå úîáþåîéå íåöäõîáòïäîïçï ïôîïóéôåìøîïçï þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá ðåòéïä óïóôá÷éìï W= 215+18/-16 (WÓ=143+12/-10). îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø 16 çòõðð ðñôåî (AR13932, AR13933, AR13936 - óòåäîåê ðìïýáäé), éú îéè 12 îáèïäéìéóø ÷ àöîïí ðïìõûáòéé. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðñôîïïâòáúï÷áôåìøîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá ÷ùóïëïí é ïþåîø ÷ùóïëïí õòï÷îñè. óòåäîåå ïöéäáåíïå úîáþåîéå þéóìá óïìîåþîùè ðñôåî úá ðåòéïä W=180+50/-50. ÷ ôåþåîéå îåäåìé ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø âùìá îá ÷ùóïëïí é óòåäîåí õòï÷îñè. úá ðåòéïä îáâìàäáìéóø 1 ÷óðùûëá òåîôçåîï÷óëïçï ëìáóóá X, 42 ÷óðùûëé ëìáóóá M, éú îéè 3 âïìøûéè (>M5), 83 ÷óðùûëé ëìáóóá C, 4 ÷ùâòïóá óïìîåþîùè ÷ïìïëïî é 62 ëïòïîáìøîùè ÷ùâòïóá ÷åýåóô÷á, éú ëïôïòùè 3 âùìé ôéðá II (ÕÇÌÏ×ÁÑ ÛÉÒÉÎÁ 90-180 ÇÒÁÄ). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ÷óðùûëé âáììï÷ ïô í1 (É ÏÔÄÅÌØÎÙÅ ÚÎÁÞÉÍÙÅ ×ÓÐÙÛÅÞÎÙÅ ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ ÍÅÎØÛÅÇÏ ÂÁÌÌÁ): to tm te ËÏÏÒÄÉÎÁÔÙ ÂÁÌÌ å(1-8A) AO RII/IV CME/to ÒÅÎÔ/ÏÐ J/m-2 km/s 20241223 0210 0231 0259 N18E89 M1.0 3.1E-03 20241223 0624 0629 0634 S12E14L176 M1.0/SF 4.1E-03 13928 20241223 1106 1112 1116 S18E30L154 M8.9 2.8E-02 13932 II/3|731 CME/1124 20241224 0014 0019 0024 S18E23L154 M4.7 1.6E-02 13932 20241224 0142 0210 0240 S05E06L175 M1.0 13933 20241224 0828 0841 0852 S18E17L154 M4.1/1B 1.5E-03 13932 II/2|455 CME/0936 20241224 1402 1410 1414 S19E15L154 M1.1 2.5E-03 13932 CME/1524 20241224 1625 1634 1703 S21E22L154 M1.3/1N 8.6E-03 13932 20241224 1820 1824 1839 S18E21L154 M1.0/SF 4.3E-03 13932 20241224 2015 2028 2041 S23W89L258 M1.0 1.5E-02 13930 CME/2024 20241224 2223 2234 2254 N20E63L104 M1.2 13938 20241225 0414 0430 0440 N20E63L104 M2.8/SF 8.8E-03 13938 20241225 0446 0449 0453 S18E06L154 M4.9/SF 1.2E-02 13932 II/2|1064 CME/0500 20241225^2359 0030 0053 M3.0 5.1E-02 13936 20241225^2359 0030 0053 N19E52L104 M3.0 5.1E-02 13938 20241226^0252 0315 0403 M7.3 7.1E-02 13933 20241226^0252 0315 0403 N19E51L104 M7.3/2÷ 7.1E-02 13938 20241227 1527 1538 1545 S16W40L176 M1.2/SF 8.2E-03 13928 20241227 2029 2035 2041 N18E25L104 M3.3/2N 1.6E-02 13938 20241228^1112 1121 1154 S09W54L175 M4.5 3.0E-02 13933 20241228^1112 1121 1154 S17W27L154 M4.5/1B 3.0E-02 13932 20241228 1514 1518 1523 S19W29L154 M1.3/1F 5.3E-03 13932 20241228 2204 2214 2223 S09W61L175 M1.2 1.0E-02 13933 20241229 0228 0235 0240 N18W84L191 M1.0/SF 3.5E-03 13929 20241229 0238 0246 0253 N10W34L144 M1.3/SF 1.1E-02 13936 20241229 0325 0330 0340 N10W31L144 M1.3/SF 1.2E-02 13936 20241229 0356 0405 0414 S06E39L080 M1.2 1.2E-02 13940 20241229 0418 0430 0509 S16E29L083 M2.0/SF 2.8E-02 13939 CMEII/0624 20241229 0512 0526 0532 S09W66L175 M3.1/SF 2.7E-02 13933 IV/2 20241229^0540 0544 0617 M3.5/SF 2.7E-02 13939 20241229^0541 0547 0558 N16W88L191 M3.5 2.7E-02 13929 20241229*0648 0659 0708 N10W35L144 M3.0/1N 3.6E-02 13936 20241229*0708 0718 0734 N10W33L144 X1.1/1N 1.2E-01 13936 20241229*0754 0759 0922 N10W33L144 M4.2/1N 1.2E-01 13936 20241229 0941 0948 0955 N11W35L144 M1.4 1.1E-02 13936 20241229 1026 1039 1056 S18W40L154 M2.6 3.6E-02 13932 20241229 1215 1224 1236 N11W35L144 M1.6/SF 5.0E-03 13936 20241229 1247 1256 1301 N11W36L144 M1.3/SN 6.7E-03 13936 20241229 1502 1509 1522 N10W37L144 M7.1 5.7E-02 13936 20241229 1656 1708 1720 S17E22L083 M3.3/1B 2.9E-02 13939 CMEII/1800 20241229 1746 1752 1758 S14W47L154 M1.2/SN 4.5E-03 13932 20241229 1758 1804 1808 S05E29L080 M1.4/SF 8.7E-03 13940 20241229 1827 1841 1914 N11W39L144 M3.3/1N 4.6E-02 13936 20241229 2031 2039 2046 N10W40L144 M1.1/SF 7.0E-03 13936 20241229 2142 2153 2157 N11W41L144 M1.5 1.4E-02 13936 20241229 2157 2206 2213 N12W37L144 M1.8 1.7E-02 13936 20241229 2320 2330 2336 N10W41L144 M1.9/SF 1.2E-02 13936 * - ÎÅÓËÏÌØËÏ ÒÅÎÔÇÅÎÏ×ÓËÉÈ ×ÓÐÌÅÓËÏ× × ÏÄÎÏÊ ÏÐÔÉÞÅÓËÏÊ ×ÓÐÙÛËÅ ^ - ÏÄÎÏ×ÒÅÍÅÎÎÙÅ ×ÓÐÙÛËÉ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ÷ùâòïóù óïìîåþîùè ÷ïìïëïî: Bó÷* to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AO CMEÔÉÐ/to 20241226 0323 0341 E limb 0.11 20241226 1831 1930 N16E29L117 16 13938 20241228 1436 1608 N02W60L181 17 20241229 0430 SE quadrant M2.0 13939 CMEII/0624 * - ×ÙÂÒÏÓÙ ÓÏÌÎÅÞÎÙÈ ×ÏÌÏËÏÎ (DSF, EPL) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ÷óðùûåþîáñ áëôé÷îïóôø ïöéäáåôóñ îá óòåäîåí é ÷ùóïëïí õòï÷îñè. îá ÷éäéíïí äéóëå óïìîãá îáâìàäáìéóø çåïüææåëôé÷îùå ëïòïîáìøîùå äùòù ó ëïïòäéîáôáíé: ÚÎÁË N ËÏÎÅà å ËÏÎÅà S ËÏÎÅà W ËÏÎÅà Sch ïëð R G KA CH - S16L233 S18L226 S23L233 S17L236 23-24.12 1 - GOES-16 CH + S25L073 S36L050 S39L056 S30L076 04-05.01 7 A GOES-16 CH + N10L053 N06L050 N03L051 N06L060 05-06.01 4 A GOES-16 Sch - ÐÌÏÝÁÄØ ëä × % ÐÌÏÝÁÄÉ ×ÉÄÉÍÏÊ ÐÏÌÕÓÆÅÒÙ ×ÂÌÉÚÉ ÃÅÎÔÒÁÌØÎÏÇÏ ÍÅÒÉÄÉÁÎÁ ÐÏ https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - ÎÅÔ ÄÁÎÎÙÈ; ïëð - ÄÁÔÁ ×ÅÒÏÑÔÎÏÇÏ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÇÏ ×ÏÚÍÕÝÅÎÉÑ × ïëð; R - ×ÏÚÒÁÓÔ × ÏÂÏÒÏÔÁÈ óÏÌÎÃÁ; G(0-5)- ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ×ÏÚÍÕÝ£ÎÎÏÓÔØ ÎÁ ÐÒÏÛÌÏÍ ÏÂÏÒÏÔÅ (ÓÒÅÄÎÉÅ ÛÉÒÏÔÙ); A - ×ÏÚÍÕ- Ý£ÎÎÁÑ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÁÑ ÏÂÓÔÁÎÏ×ËÁ. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29.12/2150 UT úåíìñ ðåòåûìá ÷ "+" óåëôïò íåöðìáîåôîïçï íáçîéôîïçï ðïìñ. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå ðòïèïöäåîéñ óåëôïòîïê çòáîéãù "+/-" îå ïöéäáåôóñ. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- äåëáâòø 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 äåëáâòø Wus 199 219 218 211 233 213 209 F10.7 238 259 253 256 259 260 255 Xbcg C2.7 ó3.1 C2.7 C2.0 C2.9 C3.6 C6.4 GOES Sp 1920 2130 1950 1770 1120 1225 1090 msh N 2 1 1 0 2 0 1 IMF sign - - - - - - +/- DSCOVR,ACE e>2 4.3E+7 2.7E+7 2.9E+7 3.4E+7 2.8E+7 1.8E+7 7.0E+6 GOES Ie>2 1540 802 772 867 969 608 307 pfu Ap 11 10 5 1 2 2 4 nT Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 12 12 5 2 4 4 4 nT IZMIRAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- IÅ>2 - ÐÉËÏ×ÙÊ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× Ó å>2 MeV × pfu (e/(cm2-sr-s)) × ÔÅÞÅÎÉÅ ÓÕÔÏË (ÓÏÂÙÔÉÑ Ó ÐÏÔÏËÏÍ >=1000 pfu); e>2 - ÎÁËÏÐÌÅÎÎÙÊ ÚÁ ÓÕÔËÉ ÐÏÔÏË ÜÌÅËÔÒÏÎÏ× ÎÁ ÇÅÏÓÔÁÃÉÏÎÁÒÎÙÈ ÏÒÂÉÔÁÈ ÐÏ ÄÁÎÎÙÍ ëá GOES × e/(cm2-sr-day). Pr>10 Mev: to 19.12/1250, tmax 22.12/0625, Ipmax 5.25 pfu, × ÐÒÏÃÅÓÓÅ... ðï äáîîùí GOES-16 ó 23.12/1520 UT ðï 23.12/1930 UT îáâìàäáìóñ ÷ùóïëéê õòï÷åîø ðïôïëá ÷ùóïëïüîåòçéþîùè üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 íÜ÷ (>1000 pfu) ó íáëóéíáìøîùí úîáþåîéåí 1540 pfu. îá óìåäõàýåê îåäåìå îá çåïóéîèòïîîïê ïòâéôå ðòå÷ùûåîéñ õòï÷îñ 1000 pfu ðïôïëïí üìåëôòïîï÷ ó å>2 MeV îå ïöéäáåôóñ. ÷ òåúõìøôáôå ÷ïúäåêóô÷éñ ÷ùóïëïóëïòïóôîïçï ðïôïëá ïô îéúëïûéòïôîïê ïôòéãáôåìøîïê ëïòïîáìøîïê äùòù ÷ àöîïí ðïìõûáòéé îáâìàäáìéóø ëòáôëï÷òåíåîîùå ðåòéïäù çåïíáçîéôîùè ÷ïúíõýåîéê: 23 äåëáâòñ (G0*, 0000-0300 UT, ÄÌÉÔ=3Þ) ðï äáîîùí ãåîôòá ÷ âïõìäåòå é 24 äåëáâòñ (G0, 2100-0000 UT, ÄÌÉÔ=3Þ) ðï äáîîùí ãåîôòá ÷ âïõìäåòå é éúíéòáî. ÷ ïóôáìøîïå ÷òåíñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá íåîñìáóø ïô óðïëïêîïê äï óìáâï÷ïúíõýåîîïê. * G0 - ÐÉËÏ×ÏÅ ÚÎÁÞÅÎÉÅ ÇÅÏÍÁÇÎÉÔÎÏÊ ÁËÔÉ×ÎÏÓÔÉ, ÓÏÏÔ×ÅÔÓÔ×ÕÀÝÅÅ Kp=4. ó 31 äåëáâòñ ðï 2 ñî÷áòñ ïöéäáåôóñ ðï÷ùûåîéå çåïíáçîéôîïê áëôé÷îïóôé ÷ðìïôø äï íáçîéôîïê âõòé ÷ òåúõìøôáôå ðïóìåäï÷áôåìøîïçï ÷ïúäåêóô÷éñ óíå ïô ÷ùâòïóá ÷ïìïëîá ïô 29.12/0440 é ÷óðùûëé í3.3 ïô 29.12/1708. 4-6 ñî÷áòñ ÷ïúíïöîù ïôäåìøîùå ðåòéïäù ÷ïúíõýåîîïê çåïíáçîéôîìê ïâóôáîï÷ëé éú-úá ÷ïúäåêóô÷éñ ÷ùóïëïóëïòïóôîïçï ðïôïëá ïô ä÷õè ðïìïöéôåìøîùè ëïòïîáìøîùè äùò, óòåäîåûéòïôîïê ÷ àöîïí é îéúëïûéòïôîïê ÷ óå÷åòîïí ðïìõûáòéñè. ÷ï ÷ôïòïê ðïìï÷éîå îåäåìé îå éóëìàþåîù íáçîéôîùå âõòé éú-úá ÷ùóïëïçï ÷óðùûåþîïçï ðïôåîãéáìá çåïüææåëôé÷îï òáóðïìïöåîîùè áëôé÷îùè ïâìáóôåê. ÷ ïóôáìøîïå ÷òåíñ çåïíáçîéôîáñ ïâóôáîï÷ëá ïöéäáåôóñ ïô óðïëïêîïê äï óìáâï÷ïúíõýåîîïê. ïâúïò é ðòïçîïú óïóôá÷ìåî ðï íáôåòéáìáí óìõöâù óïìîãá âïõìäåò, óûá http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ãåîôòá óâïòá é ïâòáâïôëé óïìîåþîùè éîäåëóï÷, âòàóóåìø, âåìøçéñ http://sidc.oma.be/, éúíéòáî (ôòïéãë, òïóóéñ) http://www.izmiran.ru. ÷.î.éÛËÏ×, î.é.ìÅÂÅÄÅ×, í.î.ìÅÂÅÄÅ×