SOLAR CYCLE DATA AND FORECAST AT PRESENT THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2021 HAS MADE Wdec. =32.4 54.0(in new system) THAT GIVES FOR 19 MONTH (2021, JULY) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 25 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*ÉÀÌØ = 19.0 31.4 - in new system W*ÉÀÎØ = 16.7 27.8 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 25 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2020 with W*=1.3; (1.8n) MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT 25 CYCLE - VI 2024 - Wmax =90-100; (150n) THE END OF 25 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2031; PROVISIONAL DAILY INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMDER FOR JANUARY 2021 (74 observatories): 1.. 48 6.. 34 11.. 49 16.. 99M 21.. 22 26.. 67 31.. 74 2.. 25 7.. 41 12.. 76 17.. 79 22.. 23 27.. 76 3.. 10m 8.. 39 13.. 83 18.. 65 23.. 18 28.. 72 4.. 11 9.. 52 14.. 98 19.. 57 24.. 33 29.. 65 5.. 24 10.. 53 15.. 91 20.. 56 25.. 52 30.. 81 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON JANUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JULY F10.7jan. = 103.8 F*10.7july= 83.1 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON JANUARY 2021, AND SMOOTHES ON 2021, JULY Ap jan.= 8.9 Ap*july = xxx --------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY, THE BRANCH OF RISE: THE PHASE OF MINIMUM Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.01 - 06.021.2022, Forecast on 07 - 14.02.2022 Carrington Rotations 2253, 2254 (11,83.01; 08,12.02.2022) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.5 - -5.1) deg. (S35 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS ON LOW AND MIDDLE LE- VELS. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD IS W=52+8/ -15 (Wn= 87+13/-12). ON VISIBLE SOLAR DISK UP 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 1-THE LARGE AND 1 THE MIDDLT SIZE, 4 - IN NORTH HEMISFERE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR NEXT WEEK IS W=060+40/-30. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVELS. 54 FLARES X-RAY CLASS "C", 15 - CLASS "B", TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION AND 20 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (31.01-6.02) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF (EPL) to te localization l deg. Fl AR CME/to 07.02 0125 0140 N28E53L344 4 12941 07.02 >1145 S18W01L037 10 ó3.1 12939 óíå/1624 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW, AND, THE HIGH POSSI- BILITY, MIDDLE LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH* - S15L107 S35L127 S45L122 S18L097 <4% 4.02 1 - SDO, HINOTORY * - low geoeffectivity, the substorms with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 3.02/2330 UT THE EARTH IS IN THE "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY "-/+" IT CAN BE EXPECT 21.02. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 FEBRUARY Wus 100 088 075 084 087 097 083 F10.7 130 129 128 127 130 126 124 èbcg B6.1 B7.6 ÷7.9 B6.7 ÷6.4 ÷5.9 ÷6.0 GOES Sp 1320 1720 1400 1280 1180 1180 740 msh N 1 1 1 IMF + + + +/- - - - DSCOVR Å>2 7.9å+7 7.1E+7 1.1E+7 7.2E+6 4.3å+7 9.0E+7 1.8E+8 GOES Ie>2 2816 2203 1416 370 4014 2774 4443 pfu Ap 10 7 12 27 32 12 15 nô Dst -17 -75 -71 -49 -27 nô KIOTO Amsc 11 4 9 19 22 13 12 IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BE- GUN 31.01/110 UT AND OBSERVED 31.01-02.02. NEXT FLUX BEGUN 4.02/ 1310 UT AND OBSERVED 4-6.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRO- NOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED 7-11.02. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS CHANGING FROM QUIET TO LEVEL OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, áms=37, dur.=12 Þ) ACCORDING BOULDER CENTER DATA AND (G0, áms=27, dur.=12 Þ) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA OBSERVED 3.02. NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, áms = 31, dur.= 24 Þ) WAS BEGUN IN 9 h, BUT ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA IT DISTUR- BANCE WAS 9 h SUBSTORM (G1) AT THE END OF THE DAY 04.02. THE SOURCE OF ITS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES BECOMES SEVERAL GEOEFFI- CIENT FACTORS INCLUDING LOW IMPORTANCES FLARESACTIVITY AND THE EARTH'S PASSAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM FROM THE SO- UTHERN HEMISPHERE CH "-" POLARITY. THE QUESTION NEEDS FURTHER STUDY. THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY A QUIET AND ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CON- DITION TO BE EXPECTED ALL DAYS, IF THE UNEXPECTED GEOEFFICIENT SOLAR FLARE EVENT DOES NOT HAPPEN. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov