Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 17 - 23.11.2014,
                 Forecast on 24 - 30.11.2014,
           Carrington Rotation 2157 (11.30.11.2014)
 
 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 054+16/-16. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 3 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 
TWO OF WHICH WAS LARGE SIZE: 
AR12209 (S13L264, CMP 18.11.2014, Sp max= 1100 mvh) -appearance 
on east limb at 11.11,  it consisting of two interacting parts. 
In 30 hours on 15-16.11 in tail, northwest part of sunspot group 
there  were the flare of X-ray class 1 large and 2 middle. After 
16.11 significant flares were not.

AR12216 (S13L164, CMP 25.11.2014, Sp max = 640 ÍÄÐ) left because 
of E-limb quite created quiet sunspot group.

In both sunspot groups significant flares are possible only at 
emergence of new magnetic fluxes that so far, judging by dynamics 
of their development, it is improbable.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED AVERAGE, AND BY END OF THE PERIOD POSSIBLE AND 
THE LOW SUNSPOT ACTIVITY.  ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE 
VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR 
THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS.  THERE IS ONE EJEC-
TIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STE-
REO WERE OBSERVED 33 CME. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR RII/IV CME
                                   X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
DSF     to      te    c/p local.     l in deg.  Fl    AR     CME
17.11  >1015  <2201  S39W01L269        8  
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVEL. IN CASE OF 
EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX LARGE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR
12209 AND AR12216. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign  N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE   R  G   Observatories
CH  +   N02L271 S02L269 S10L273 S05L286  19.11  6  G0  SDO,SOHO....
CH  -   S31L203 S45L188 S60L188 S40L218  25.11  1  G0  SDO,SOHO....
CH  +   N50L143 N48L123 N25L148 N36L153  30.11  3  G0  SDO,SOHO....
The first CH consists of 3 parts and on 
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/ CH isn't. Second - probably the part 
of polar CH.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 14.11/0830 UT  THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD.  THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH HAS TO 
PASS 26.11.

NOVEMBER  17      18     19     20     21     22     23    NOVEMBER 
Wus      095     092    072    083    068    064    066    
F10.7    168     167    170    168    163    167    173    
èbcg    ÷7.9    ÷8.9   ÷9.2   ÷8.8   ÷7.7   ÷8.6   ÷8.9       GOES
Sp      1050    1140    970   1360   1550   1590   1810   mvh   
N         1                     1                          
IMF       +       +      +      +      +      +      +        áóå   
Å>2   2.3E+8  1.2å+8 7.6å+7 4.3å+7 2.3å+7 2.0E+6 1.9E+7       GOES
Ie>2    5723    3025   2815   1734    769    535          pfu GOES  
Ap        12      12     7      11     17     22     11   nT   
Dst                                                       nT  KIOTO  
Amsc      14      12     9      13     14     11     10   nT IZMIRAN  
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL WAS BEGAN AT 16.11 AND OBSERVED 17 - 20 NOVEVBER.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CJNDITIONS LAST WEEK WAS FORMALLY UNSETTLED AND QUIET 
THOUGH SUBSTORMS WERE ALMOST EVERY DAY OBSERVED INTENSITY (G0 - a K-
index 4) AND DURATION UP TO 6 HOURS.

NEXT WEEK CHARACTER OF THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS WON'T CHANGE: 
AGAINST THE RESULTANT QUIET AND UNSETTLED OF THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITI-
ONS CAN BE REGISTERED SEPARATE MINOR SUBSTORMS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru