-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2014 HAS MADE W mar.= 92.2, THAT GIVES FOR 62 MONTH (2013, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*sep. = 73.1 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI 2013 - XII 2013 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 73 - 78. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014, MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 66 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1..111 6.. 91 11.. 79 16.. 87 21.. 90 26.. 80 31.. 84 2..113 7.. 96 12.. 94 17.. 90 22..104 27.. 82 3..115M 8.. 83 13.. 80 18.. 97 23..108 28.. 87 4..101 9.. 79 14.. 78m 19..101 24.. 98 29.. 84 5..110 10.. 81 15.. 79 20.. 99 25.. 97 30.. 79 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2014, MARCH F mar.= 149.9 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, MARCH Ap mar.= 4.88 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 31.03 - 06.04.2014, Forecast on 07 - 13.04.2014, Carrington Rotation 2148, 2149 (11.06; 7.36.04.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT THE MODERATE LEVEL BUT 4-5.04 AT THE HIGH. AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNA- TIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 084+19/-10. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 8-7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF THEM HAD MODERATE AREA. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE MODERATE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUN- SPOTFORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA- LUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+10/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 02.04, THE MODERATE-31.03, AND LOW LEVEL - IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS (NON GEOEFFCTIVE). BY SOHO AND STE- REO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 44 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "HALO" TYPE AND 5 - THE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II". ----------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME 31.03 0720 0807 >0812 S13W76L168 M1.4/ 1.9E-2 12014 02.03 1318 1403 1535 N09õ52L015 M6.5/2÷ 1.4E-1 12027 II/1 IV/2 CME DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 01.04 >0029 <1345 S27W33L103 11 01.04 >0216 <2305 S31W66L136 12 01.04 >1252 <0607 N01E15L055 16 02.04 >0957 <2306 S37E20L036 9 05.04 2045 2230 N26W11L036 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE- VELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH + N05L091 N00L089 S05L101 S03L104 01.04 1 SDO, SOHO,.... CH - N30L048 N25L043 N18L058 N22L061 05.04 8+5 SDO, SOHO,.... CH - N40L287 N38L267 N16L312 N20L317 12.04 6 SDO, SOHO,.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 05.04/07 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNE- TIC FIELDS. 31.03 THE EARTH PASSED THE BOUNDARY +/-. THE FOLLOWING SEC- TORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 09.04. MARCH 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 APRIL Wus 129 124 126 137 159 172 127 F10.7 152 153 155 153 157 142 141 èbcg B9.1 B6.5 ÷7.0 ÷4.8 ÷5.4 ÷3.9 B3.9 GOES Sp 630 540 740 800 1050 930 560 mvh N 2 2 1 1 IMF + + + + + +/- - áóå Å>2 7.2E+5 1.2å+5 1.8å+5 2.9å+5 3.5å+5 2.6å+5 1.2E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 7 6 4 5 6 15 5 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 10 8 8 8 8 12 6 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENT WAS REGISTERED 5.04 FROM BACK SIDE FLARE EVENT: Pr (>10 MeV): to - 5.04/07 UT; tmax - 06/12 UT: 1 pfu; IN PROGRESS.... THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE AND UNSETTLED. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru