Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
             Highlights on 13 - 19.01.2014,
               Forecast on 20 - 27.01.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2145, 2146 (19,05.12.2013, 15.39.01.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.  
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
WAS MADE W=057+11/-11. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSER-
VED 6-10 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS. LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP (AR11944, 
S04L097, Sp=1560 mvh) GONE FOR W-LIMB PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED on 14.01.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE HIGH LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FOR-
MING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATI-
VE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS 
EXPECTED W=070+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 8.01 AND LOW LEVEL IN OTHER 
DAYS.  DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD  4 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT, NON 
GEOEFFCTIVE. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSER-
VED 39 CME FROM WHICH FIVE WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.
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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
13.01 2148 2151 >2154 S08W75L101 í1.3/SF 1.8E-3 11944

 DSF     to      te   c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl   AR        CME
13.01  0522    0722   N23E20L357        18
16.01 >1020   <2241   S08E36L298        11 
18.01 >1013   <2300   N01W44L351         6
18.01  2124    2235   S38W52L359        19
19.01  1715    1743   S18E62L232         6
c/p local. - central part localization 
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NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND
AVERAGE LEVELS. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end     EE    R  G   Observatories
óH  -  S43L354 S57L344 S60L354 S40L024  16.01  1      SDO, SOHO....
óH  -  N50L2274 N45L264 N18L324 N30L325 21.01  3      SDO, SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/
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AFTER 18.01/1830 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. 11.01 SIGN OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD VARIES. THE 
FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY + /-  THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 06.02.

JANUARY   13     14     15     16     17     18     19       JANUARY
Wus      102    095    087    077    095    114    091
F10.7    143    137    126    121    129    130    128      
èbcg    ÷6.2   ÷7.7   ÷5.6   ÷4.5   ÷7.1   ÷4.9   B4.3      GOES
Sp      1350    480    450    330    360    500    530  mvh   
N                1             1      3      2            
IMF       -      -      -      -      -     -/+     +        áóå
Å>2   8.2å+6 7.9å+6 1.2å+7 1.9å+7 1.8å+7 1.5E+7 1.5E+7       GOES
Ie>2                                                    pfu  GOES 
Ap        6      11     4      2      4      2      2    nT  áÒ
Dst                                                      nT  KéOTO
Amsc      7      10     7      5      7      4      5    nT  éúíéòáî
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Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary 
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

LARGE SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS REGISTERED:
Pr (>10 MeV) to 7.01/2030 UT; max 1033 pfu 08/2949UT; te-14/07 UT .

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. 

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED 
AND QUIET. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru