Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/10/21

     Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 15 - 20.10.2018,
                  Forecast on 21 - 29.10.2018,
     Carrington Rotation 2209, 2210(29,6.09; 26,10.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (+6.25 - +6.01) deg. 
             (S17 - N28 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN HAVE REMAINED AT THE VERY 
LOW. 15-17.10 ON THE SUN OBSERVED SUNSPOT (SPOTLESS - 168 DAYS IN 
THIS YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERI-
OD W=005+8/-5 (Wn= 008+13/-8). ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP ON VISIBLE 
SOLAR DISC HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT A VERY LOW LE-
VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. TWO SOLAR FILAMENTS 
AND TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
16.10  0348  0412  S11E20L156       7            12724
17.10 <0000 <0142  S13E06L128       8            12724
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
CH +     Pn    N50L168  N35L128 N38L126   4.6% 19.10  2  -  SOHO,SDO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 13.10/13 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD,  BUT THE SIGN OF THE SECTOR  IS VERY UNSTABLE. NEXT STABLE 
SECTOR BOUNDARY  -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 28.10.
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
OCTOBER  15     16     17     18     19     20    OCTOBER
Wus     011    000    011    000    000    000  
F10.7   070    070    070    070    070    070 
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0    GOES
Sp      000    010    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                             
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -     DSCOVR   
>2  1.8E+7 5.4E+7 6.5E+7 7.0+7 7.2+7 6.8E+7    GOES
Ie>2    679   1323   1463   1363   1333   1273    pfu 
Ap       11     5      2      2      2      2     n  
Dst                                               n KIOTO
Amsc     10     6      2     1       3      2     n IZMIRAN 
------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN
16.10/1610 UT AND 16 - 20.10 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 21-29.10.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE AND UNSETTLED

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov