Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2018/06/18

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                Highlights on 11 - 17.06.2018,
                  Forecast on 18 - 25.06.2018,
            Carrington Rotation 2004 (16,45.05.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - -0.1) deg. 
            (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE VERY LOW 
LEVEL. 11 JUNE THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS. THE ESTIMATED,  MOST LI-
KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=007+003/-007 
(Wn= 012 +003/-012). ON THE VISIBLE DISC OF THE SUN, 1 SMALL 
AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS.

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY   
LEVEL.  LIKELY  WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old)  FOR THE NEXT WEEK 
IS W=010+10/-10. 

 THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILA-
MENT EJECTIONS AND 3 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
14.06  1741   1911  S02E46L020      14 
------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE    R  G  Space Obser.
CH  -  S02L025 S20L060  S30L040 S04L020       12.06  R6    SOHO,STEREO..
CH  +  N45L352 N32L354  N06L332 N08L327 14300 17.06  R2    SOHO,STEREO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 30.05/1800 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 21.06.

JUNE    11     12     13     14     15     16     17   JUNE
Wus    000    012    016    016    013    013    015 
F10.7  070    070    071    072    071    071    071 
bcg  2.3   2.6   3.0    2.7  2.5   A2.1   A2.5  GOES
Sp     000    010    060    030    010    010    020  msh   
N              1                         
IMF     +      +      +     +/-     -      -      -   DSCOVR   
>2 7.3E+7 5.0E+7 5.2E+7 2.0+7 1.6+7 2.1E+7 2.2E+7  GOES
Ie>2  1842   1815   1544   1606    465    508    816  pfu 
Ap      3      4      4      4      3      3      4    n  
Dst                                                    n KIOTO
Amsc    4      4      6      5      4      3      5    n IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGIN- 
NING AT 01/1610 UT AND HAVE OBSERVED 01 - 14.06.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUITE.

 THE NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMA-
RILY QUITE AND UNSETTLED, BUT WITH STORMING PERIODS ON 18.09, DUE
TO INFLUENCES FROM CH HSS.
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov