Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/07/15

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 08 - 14.07.2019,
                Forecast on 15 - 22.07.2019,
          Carrington Rotation 2219 (29,5.06.2019)    
           Earth out of ecliptic (0.5 - 1.2) deg. 
          (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 
THE SOLAR DISC WAS SPOTLESS (124 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE CURRENT 
YEAR). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RE-
LATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR 
PERIOD W =0 (Wn=0). 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  WAS ON VERY LOW LE-
VELS. THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK EXPECTED SPOTLESS. LIKELY WEEKLY 
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+20/-10. 

 FLARE ACTIVITY  WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT 
AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to          te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
09.07 2313   2351 S33E17L245     7              12744
13.07 1700   1840 S28W50L214    15         A7.6 12744 CME/0236
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 sign  N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser.
CH +  N35L291 N22L296 N15L293 N202L276  2.4%  9.07  R4  -  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition. 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 C 28.06 UT THE FIELD SIGN IS UNSTABLE AND OFTEN CHANGES, BUT IN THE 
 MIDDLE ARE REMAINED WITH THE "+" SIGN. THE NEXT SECTOR LIMIT OF THE 
 EARTH HAS TO PASS 24.07.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JULY     08     09     10     11     12     13     14    JULY
Wus     000    000    000    000    000    000    000 
F10.7   067    068    068    067    067    066    067 
bcg   6.9   6.7   7.1   7.2   A7.1   A6.8   6.7    GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000    msh   
N                                
IMF     +/~    +/~     +      +      +      +     +     DSCOVR   
>2  2.0E+6 2.0E+6 2.1E+8 2.3E+8 2.8E+8 2.0E+8 1.6+8    GOES
Ie>2                                                     pfu 
Ap       9      17     15     7      5      6      5     n  
Dst                                                      n KIOTO
Amsc     7      16     12     6      6      8      7     n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------            
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN 
AT 10.07/1230 AND 10-14.07 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED 15-16.07.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES 9 AND 10.07 WAS ACTIVE 
BECAUSE OF JOINT IMPACT OF DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 
02.07 WITH VERY SLOW CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM 
OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE CORONAL HOLE "+" POLARITY OF NORTHERN HE-
MISPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED QUIET AND 
UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSET-
TLED.  

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov