Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation
Russian Academy of Sciences
( founded in 1939 )
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Solar Activity Forecast

2019/01/21

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 14 - 20.01.2019,
                  Forecast on 21 - 28.01.2019,
 Carrington Rotations 2212 2213 (20,5.12.2018; 16,83.01.2019)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-4.4 - -5.1) deg. 
             (S30 - N20 is zone of geoeffectiveness)

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL, 
THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (13 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2019). ESTIMATED, MOST 
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W = 000 (Wn= 000). 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LE-
VEL.  LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW AND LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT 
EJECTION AND ONE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/p   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l  .  Fl    AR    CME/to
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   E end   S end   W end    Sch    EE   R   G  Space Obser. 
CH +   N30L342 N25L345 S13L297 S15L292  10%   23.1 R6  -  SDO, SOHO...
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 2.01/1430 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 24.01.2019

------------------------------------------------------------------- 
JANUARY  14     15     16     17     18     19     20   JANUARY
Wus     000    000    000    0000   000    000    000  
F10.7   070    070    070    069    069    070    069  
bcg  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0  <1.0   GOES
Sp      000    000    000    000    000    000    000   msh   
N               1                              
IMF      -      -       -     -      -      -      -    DSCOVR   
>2  9.6E+6 5.0E+6 1.7E+6 4.1+5 5.8+5 9.5E+5 9.5E+5   GOES
Ie>2    583    214    148                               pfu 
Ap       6      5      6      7      5      4      4    n  
Dst                                                     n KIOTO
Amsc      8     4      6      7      6      6      4    n IZMIRAN 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
06.01 AND OBSERVED 06.01.2019  
 
NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR-
BIT IS EXPECTED AFTER 24.01.2019.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE. 

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITITON IS EXPECTED TO BE PRRIMARILQUITE AND UN-
SETTLED, WITH A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITION AND G1 STORMING AT 23-24.
01 (THE PROBABILITY ~30%), DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM HIGH-SPEED STREAM 
OF THE "+" POLARITY CORONAL HOLE (CH HSS).
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov